When Harry left Sally: A New Estimate of Marital Disruption in the U.S., 1860 – 1948

The divorce rate is a poor indicator of marital instability because many marital disruptions never become divorces. This paper provides the first estimate of the rate of marital disruption in the U.S. in 1860 – 1948. In the long run, the cohort rate of marital disruption increased from about 10% in the mid-1860s to about 30% in the 1940s. Marital disruption rate was similar to the divorce rate after the Civil War but the two rates diverged wildly in the early 20 century. In 1900 – 1930, the disruption rate was as much as double the divorce rate, implying that perhaps half of all disruptions never reached the court. 1 John E. Walker Department of Economics, Clemson University, 222 Sirrine Hall, Clemson, SC 29634; [email protected]; phone: (864) 656-1154; fax: (864) 656-4192 Cvrcek: When Harry left Sally: A New Estimate of Marital Disruption in the U.S., 1860 – 1948 720 http://www.demographic-research.org